Old Gold and Black > 02.13.03 >Fuzzy math shifts the focus of European power to east
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Fuzzy math shifts the focus of European power to east
By Erik Jacobson
Guest columnist

I have written this article for all those armchair pundits who may have missed Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's latest lesson in contemporary geography. In a press brief a week or so ago, the always salty Rumsfeld was responding to France and Germany's very public stance against a U.S. led war in Iraq. During his discourse he brought it upon himself to update the world concerning the new power structure in Europe. Because there is no need to paraphrase a man who thinks "tact" is the gooey substance holding up his 13-month calendar of September, here are his actual words: "Now you're thinking of Europe as Germany and France. I don't. I think that's old Europe É If you look at the entire NATO Europe today, the center of gravity is shifting to the east É Look at the vast numbers of other countries in Europe. They're not with France and Germany on this. They're with the United States."

From the same people who brought us "wholesome violence" and the "axis of evil" arrives an even more perplexing phrase: "old Europe." Apparently, while the French were busy eating cheese and the Germans occupied with looking mean, those sneaky Eastern European countries were bulking up and have managed, at long last, to shift the "center of gravity" over to the east. What an incredible turn of events!

My first response was to ask what the capital of "New Europe" would be? Since the sun has obviously set on Berlin and Paris, perhaps the new movers and shakers of Europe will hence do their mingling in capitals such as Chisinau or Bratislava?

But I must admit, although Rumsfeld nearly had me convinced of this new global hierarchy, I felt the urge to verify his claims against the 2002 CIA World Factbook, the latest in the series.

I even found a way to make it fun. The game was to figure out how many Eastern European countries it takes to equal the power of France and Germany.

I decided two good measuring sticks might be a nation's gross domestic product and its total military expenditures. I suppose if this is how we judge our own greatness as a nation, it is good enough for Europe.

Just to get a ballpark figure, I decided to add up every Eastern European country I could find (some are pretty small), which came to a total of 11. The equation went something like this: Romania plus Yugoslavia plus Poland plus the Czech Republic plus Hungary plus Bulgaria plus Slovakia plus Moldova plus Lithuania plus Latvia plus Estonia equals a collective GDP of billion and a total military output of .5 billion. That sure seems like a lot of money and power, but what about France and Germany?

This equation was somewhat simpler: Germany plus France equals a GDP of 3.6 trillion dollars, and military expenditures beyond billion. According to my game, it would take about 40 Eastern European countries to rival "old Europe" in terms of GDP, and about 110 in order to sit at the same military expenditure poker table. Aww shucks, it seems reality limits us to 11.

Apparently, Rumsfeld was not just interested in adding new phrases like "old Europe" to his administration's dizzying gaggle of terms, but with this most recent slight of hand, he has recalled perhaps the most famous "Bushism" of all: fuzzy math. Unless all of Eastern Europe begins quickly dividing and replicating like a dozen horny amoebas, their GDP, military prowess and thus power, will not dare rival France and Germany for this or any foreseeable generation.

The only justification I can come up with for branding France and Germany "old Europe" would be in reference to their experience with the terror of modern warfare. Among the Western nations, they are the most ravaged and battle hardened. Modern war has claimed millions and millions more Germans and French than nearly any other state. They are speaking from experience and their message is as clear as it is sage.

Perhaps if we turn down the war drums, it will be easier to listen. So if "experienced" is what is meant by "old Europe," and not some cheap parlor trick meant to bamboozle Americans into invading a sovereign nation, I too will learn to appreciate your candor, Mr. Rumsfeld.

Erik Jacobson is a sophomore.



 


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