'Pressbox': Who will be dateless for dance?
By Daniel Ogle
Assistant Sports Editor

> February 16, 2001

Six teams, five spots. It’s a math problem so simple that even former Vice President Dan Quayle could solve it.

As the ACC basketball season heads into the home stretch, the conference has shaken out as many would have expected. By virtue of having a combing record of 33-5 overall and 21-2 record in the league, North Carolina and Duke are living in the penthouse. Also as expected, N.C. State, Clemson and Florida State have taken residence in the outhouse. In the middle are four teams, Virginia, Maryland, Head Coach Dave Odom’s Deacons and Georgia Tech, all of whom are currently sitting on the NCAA bubble.

The math is simple. Courtesy of being rated the third-strongest conference nationally in the latest Ratings Percentage Index, the ACC can most likely count on five bids in the field of 65. (The NCAA announced earlier this year that the tournament would add one team to the field.)

Although trying to decipher what the selection committee is going to do is always dangerous, (see Florida State making it in over the Deacons in 1998, despite a 6-10 league record) it appears that one of the six tournament-caliber teams from the ACC will be left sitting at home in March, dateless for the Big Dance.

The field includes 31 automatic bids, which are doled out to conference champions and 34 at large bids. In the latest espn.com predictions, the Big Ten and SEC were given a combined 14 bids, which consequently leaves only 22 at large bids remaining.

As a result, the next three weeks in the ACC have the potential to be as exciting as any finish in recent memory. Duke and North Carolina are outright locks for the tournament and are also likely to be top seeds. However, their is currently a four-way tie for third in the conference, so a slip up by any of the four teams in the middle could spell doom for their respective tournament hopes.

After defeating Duke 91-89 last night, Virginia appears to be in the best shape of the four teams. The Cavaliers have six wins over teams in the top 50 of the RPI, including a non-conference pasting of Tennessee in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. Gillen’s club already has 17 wins, and is ranked 12th in both major polls.

Much is made of how a team finishes a season, and unfortunately for Gillen and company, the schedule does the Wahoos no favors. Included in Virginia’s final four regular season games are games against North Carolina and Maryland. The Cavaliers’ RPI ranking of 36 should also concern Virginia fans, but with the Cavaliers’ stock of quality wins, they are in.

As it stands now, the Demon Deacons are the ACC team with the next best chance of making the tournament. As everyone knows, the Deacons jumped out to a 12-0 start, which included blowout wins over Kansas and Virginia. However, as has also been well documented, the Deacons have fallen on hard times recently, going 5-7 over their last 12 games. Despite the slump, the Deacons appear to be in good shape for the tournament. They are ranked 15th in the latest coaches’ poll and 23rd in the Associated Press Poll. The last team to be ranked and not make the dance was UNLV, which was ranked 25th in 1993.

In addition to this, the Deacons’ RPI ranking of 26 should go a long way in solidifying the Deacs’ chances. The schedule also deals Odom’s club a favor. The Deacs are 17-7 and with upcoming games against Clemson and N.C. State, if the Deacons win the games they are supposed to, they would be 19-9 entering the ACC Tournament and would have a bid all but locked up.

After the Demon Deacons and the Cavaliers is where it begins to get tricky. Paul Hewitt’s Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets would probably be the fifth ACC team if the season ended today. After falling hard to the Deacons last night, the Yellow Jackets are only 14-9 on the season. However, with wins over Kentucky, UCLA, the Deacons and two wins over Virginia, Georgia Tech has five wins over teams ranked in the top 36 of the RPI.

Another important factor playing in Tech’s favor is that it is playing well at the right time of the season. The Yellow Jackets have won four of their last six games. With three of their last four games against the conference cellar dwellers, the Yellow Jackets have a chance to get to 17-10 entering the ACC Tournament, which would make it tough to turn them away.

If Hewitt’s Yellow Jackets are the surprise of the conference, Gary Williams’ Maryland Terrapins are the flop of the league. Maryland was predicted by many as a Final Four contender, but if the tournament selections were made tomorrow, the Terrapins might not be invited. Maryland is15-9 and after last night’s loss to Florida State, are dangerously close to missing the tournament.Another problem besides Maryland’s questionable record is they have beaten absolutely no one. While Virginia and Georgia Tech have a plethora of quality wins, Maryland’s quality wins, if one could call them that, are home victories over fellow ACC bubble teams Georgia Tech and the Deacons.

Maryland is currently ranked in both major polls, but their RPI is dangerously high at 44.

The Terrapins have been close in losses to Duke, North Carolina and Illinois, but you know what they say about that: close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. For a team to be ranked so high in the pre-season and not make the tournament would seem almost unfathomable, but as it stands now the Terrapins would probably be dateless for the Big Dance.

Things look good for Odom’s Deacons, the Cavaliers and the Yellow Jackets right now, but as Odom knows a lot can happen between now and March. If things shake out as expected, one ACC team will be left out of the dance, and just maybe, Odom’s club, who has been one of the last teams to be taken off the board each of the last three years, won’t be the one stuck at home without a date.